TOTEM TREND INDEX (TTI)


A proprietary index to measure the strength of the "Trend Trading" environment.




LAST UPDATE: 11/29/22 03:00 PM
Month Avg
32
22-Day Change
-19
5-Day Change
-5
11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18 11/21 11/22 11/23 11/25 11/28 11/29
TOTEM TREND INDEX 27 26 23 23 24 24 24 27 25 23

FIXED INCOME
US ULTRA LONG BOND -50 -50 -50 -50 -50
US TREASURY BOND -15 -15 -15 -15 -15
TREASURY NOTE 10 YR -15 15 -15 -15 -15
TREASURY NOTE 5 YR 0 0 0 0 0
TREASURY NOTE 2 YR 0 0 0 0 0
EQUITIES
E-MINI S&P 500 15 15 15 15 15
E-MINI NASDAQ 100 15 15 15 15 15
MINI DOW JONES 15 15 15 15 15
FX
EUROCURRENCY 15 15 15 15 15
JAPANESE YEN 15 15 15 15 15
BRITISH POUND 15 15 15 15 15
CANADIAN DOLLAR 15 15 15 15 15
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR 15 15 15 15 15
METALS
GOLD 15 15 15 15 15
SILVER 50 50 50 50 15
COPPER - HIGH GRADE 50 15 15 15 15
ENERGY
LIGHT CRUDE OIL 15 15 -15 -15 -15
HEATING OIL 15 15 15 15 -15
NY HARBOR RBOB GAS 15 15 15 -15 -15
NATURAL GAS -15 -15 -15 -15 -15
GRAINS
CORN -15 -15 -15 -15 -15
SOYBEANS 15 15 -15 15 15
WHEAT -15 -15 -15 -15 -15
SOYBEAN OIL 100 100 50 50 50
SOFTS
COFFEE -100 -100 -100 -100 -100
SUGAR #11 100 100 100 100 100
COCOA 50 50 15 15 15
COTTON -15 -15 -15 -15 -50
LIVESTOCK
LIVE CATTLE -15 15 15 15 50
LEAN HOG 15 15 15 15 15

Our proprietary 3 factor model assigns a value representingour measure of trend strength on each of the instruments in our portfolio. A full short bias has a score of -100, a full long bias has a score of +100 with four waypoints in between.


Since we have no long or short bias, we use the absolute value of these scores then compute the portfolio mean to derive our Totem Trend Index (TTI). We walk through this process on the Trading Futures with Anthony Crudele show.

Rather than attempting to predict where any thing is going, we follow our rules as they guide us along the thing's path of least resistance. By observing all of the things in our portfolio and their relationship with each other, we gain insight into what the prevailing market regime looks like. We then use this constantly changing information to systematically adjust for changes in market regimes. Contact us in person to discuss how.

Most trading strategies may be generally separated into 2 broad categories:

  1. CONCAVE
    Some strategies prefer that markets do not move around much at all, or return to their longer-term averages after having drifted far away. You can call those "short volatility" or "mean-reversion" strategies.

  2. CONVEX
    Other approaches, such as ours, tend to thrive when markets do move and shift to new levels of equilibrium as new or sometimes unexpected information causes a change in factors affectiong price, such as supply, demand, fear and greed. You can call these "long volatility" or "trend following" strategies.
While a supply or demand shock may hit any specific instrument at any time to cause a large, isolated move, there is a large body of statistical evidence to suggest that trend following strategies make much of their returns in relatively short periods of high or increasing volatility and cross-market correlation. In order to generate the really strong returns, "long vol" strategies need at least a few things to be moving, and generally speaking the more the merrier.

Our TTI ranges in values from 0 - 100. With over 5,000 daily observations since the year 2000, we break the data down into 4 quartiles which help us to determine which regime we are currently in.

Time Regime TTI Characteristics
20% Strong Trend over 52 Suggests that many markets are trending and a generally favorable trading environment with increasing or high levels of volatility and cross-market correlation.
65% Limited 30 - 52 Does not preclude the possibility of trending moves in individual markets which are still driven by supply/demand factors and external shocks. Possible nascent trend formations.
15% Challenging below 30 Lack of overall trending activity and low levels of cross-market correlation. May be a good time to gain or add to trend exposure in investment portfolios.

Don't be a screen scraper! We can see you doing so. And if we can see you, don't you think that also means we can block your IP address? If you find this information useful, contact us to discuss consulting arrangements where we may provide clean and current data files via FTP at the end of every trading day.

PAST PERFORMANCE MAY NOT NECESSARILY BE INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RETURNS
FUTURES TRADING IS SPECULATIVE AND HIGH-RISK. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS INVOLVED IN FUTURES TRADING AND SUCH TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS.